Recently, DNV released a new report titled "Hydrogen Energy Forecast for 2050", which highlights the following main points:
Hydrogen in the global energy mix will only reach 0.5% by 2030, and will reach 5% by 2050!
Hydrogen is crucial for achieving global decarbonization goals. In order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen will need to meet approximately 15% of the world's energy demand by around 2050.
However, Norske Veritas predicts that the proportion of hydrogen in global energy is not optimistic, reaching 0.5% of the final global energy mix by 2030 and 5% by 2050,
Although it accounts for a relatively high share of energy mix in some regions of the world, it is currently not possible to achieve the target of 15%. In order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, all countries need to double the utilization of hydrogen energy.
Investment and hydrogen production costs
Although the 5% figure may not be satisfactory in the eyes of Det Norske Veritas, it will still be a huge investment process. The report predicts that from now to 2050, the global expenditure on producing hydrogen for energy will be $6.8 trillion, an additional $180 billion for hydrogen pipelines, and $530 billion for the construction and operation of ammonia terminals.
Because the cost of electrolysis will significantly decrease by 2050, the average cost of hydrogen production will be around $1.5 per kilogram during that period, and the utilization of green and blue hydrogen will be more widespread.
The average price of global blue hydrogen will decrease from $2.5 per kilogram in 2030 to $2.2 per kilogram in 2050. In regions like the United States that have cheap natural gas, the cost will be below $2. The report predicts that globally, green hydrogen will reach cost parity with blue hydrogen in the next decade.

Green hydrogen will increasingly become the cheapest form of production in most regions. By 2050, 72% of hydrogen will be produced by electrolysis, and 28% will come from fossil fuels. In 2030, the proportion of hydrogen produced from fossil fuels will be 34%, and some regions with cheap natural gas will have a higher share of blue hydrogen.

Hydrogen transmission will mainly rely on natural gas pipelines

Due to cost considerations, by 2050, more than 50% of global hydrogen pipelines will come from natural gas pipelines, with some regions reaching as high as 80%. Because the cost of renovating the pipeline is expected to be only 10-35% of the new construction cost.

Hydrogen will be transported through pipelines within and between neighboring countries, but long-distance transportation between vast continents is not possible. The use of ammonia for long-distance transportation is safer and more convenient. By 2050, 59% of energy related ammonia will be traded between regions.

Hydrogen application scenarios mainly focus on industry

The application scenario of hydrogen will be dominated by the manufacturing industry, which will replace coal and natural gas in high-temperature processes. The steel and other industries will use hydrogen on a large scale towards 2030.

Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol will play a crucial role in decarbonization in the heavy transportation sector, especially in aviation, sea transportation, and some truck transportation, but scaling up will not occur until the late 2030s.

Det Norske Veritas is not optimistic about hydrogen for passenger cars. Hydrogen used for building heating is usually mixed with natural gas, but it will not scale up globally.

Source: Lvshui Qingshan Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction WeChat official account